Italy prepare for World Cup play-off with two major dilemmas

Italy will be preparing for the World Cup play-off semi-final against Northern Ireland with two major dilemmas, even if Gennaro Gattuso has reiterated that his priority will be to work on the team’s mindset.

The World Cup play-off draw, setting up a semi-final between Italy and Northern Ireland, has sparked a variety of reactions. Azzurri supporters have not been accustomed to positive thinking after failing to qualify in 2018 and 2022.

Based on FIFA’s rankings, Italy shouldn’t be concerned about taking on the team sitting at 69th, not to mention the considerable technical gap between the two sides.

As mentioned above, however, we Italians have grown painfully accustomed to World Cup letdowns, as four years ago, we were expressing the same confidence against North Macedonia.

Italy didn’t deserve to lose that match; we remember that. Less than a year after winning the Euros, Roberto Mancini’s Italy dominated in Palermo, created several goal-scoring opportunities, yet Aleksandar Trajkovski’s late goal sent North Macedonia into the play-off Final, where they’d eventually lose to Portugal.

Since then, the Azzurri have hired two new coaches, Luciano Spalletti and Gattuso. The team were eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2024 Euros and conceded seven times in two games against Norway in the World Cup qualifiers group phase, scoring just once.

Gattuso began his spell in September with little time to make an impact and the absolute need to earn as many points as possible in Group I. He took charge of a team that showed tactical confusion under Spalletti and was mentally drained, but despite five wins and one loss in his opening six games as a coach, Ringhio still hasn’t fixed Italy’s problems. In all honesty, no other coach could have done it.

Italy will play the one-legged semi-final against Northern Ireland at home, probably at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo and, yet again, Gattuso will have little time to prepare for the match.

The Italian Federation is working to find a window for a quick get-together at Coverciano a few weeks before the international break in March, but it promises to be a hard task due to the packed fixture list domestically and across Europe.

Naturally, the longer Gattuso can spend with his players, the better, but it is unlikely that the extra time the coach might be given will be enough to turn things around overnight.

So, what will the CT need to work on to get Italy to the World Cup?

As he has previously said, the priority will be to put things together from a psychological standpoint. Italy looked way too vulnerable in their last game against Norway, despite a very positive first half and melted as soon as their opponents scored the equaliser in the second half.

More than anything, Italy will have to deal with pressure in their next two games and must be able to fight their demons to secure two wins and a ticket for the USA, Canada and Mexico.

All the pressure will be on them in the semi-final, where everybody, even the national champion of negativity, would expect a win. The pressure in the potential final will be different as Italy already know it will be an away game, either in Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.

There’s no doubt the Azzurri are technically better than any of their next opponents, including the potential finalists, but playing the final away, especially in Cardiff, remains a matter of concern, especially considering the team’s fragility.

It is no coincidence that, according to Gazzetta, Gattuso urged his players to realise “how strong they are” even after Norway’s 4-1 trashing at San Siro the other night. It’s true. Italy don’t have a world-class champion like in the past. We’ve talked enough about not having Baggios, Del Pieros or Tottis, yet this team still has talent, and the players must be the first ones to realise it.

Many of Italy’s stars play in the Premier League – Gigio Donnarumma, Riccardo Calafiori and Sandro Tonali – the core of Inter players have made it to two Champions League Finals in three years. Up front, the likes of Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean are scoring more consistently than their predecessors at an international level. In other words, there are reasons to be optimistic, but optimism is not enough if you are Italian and have not seen your country play in the World Cup for over ten years. Inevitably, pressure will be Italy’s unwanted companion in the next four months, and the players must show the psychological strength to deal with it, something that clearly didn’t happen in the past.

But there’s another issue that, in my opinion, should not be overlooked, and it’s tactical.

Gattuso is right when he says that every system has pros and cons, but at the same time, finding a clear team identity should have been another priority for his first six games in charge.

Don’t forget that tactical arguments played a part in undermining the chemistry between the Azzurri and Gattuso’s predecessor, Spalletti.

Gattuso said at a press conference in September that he preferred a four-man defence as a three-man backline would make the team overly defensive. Yet again, the coach tried multiple systems in his first six games in charge, including a three-man defence in the recent loss against Norway.

The Azzurri seem to be lacking creativity on the wings when playing with a 3-5-2 system, but at the same time, the best wingers currently available, Riccardo Orsolini and Mattia Zaccagni, are not a guarantee of success at the highest levels in international football.

The case could be different for Federico Chiesa, but it remains to be seen whether the Liverpool winger will change his mind in the new year and finally return to the national team after almost two years.

Don’t forget that one of the biggest improvements under Gattuso was in attack, where Retegui and Kean have linked up perfectly, so the coach will be reluctant to pick just one of them in the playoffs. This means Gattuso will pick a 4-4-2 system or a 3-5-2 against Northern Ireland, unless Kean is used in a slightly wider position on the left flank in a 4-3-3 formation.

Italy desperately miss a player who can make things happen in the final third, and even though they haven’t yet found someone to tailor the perfect suit, the overall quality is high enough to avoid another World Cup fiasco.

Surely, there will be little time available for Gattuso and the team to prepare for – hopefully – two big games, which might seem easy on paper, but only for somebody not accustomed to negativity, as Italy has been in recent years.