What Italy need to secure automatic qualification to 2026 World Cup

Italy take their next step in World Cup qualification against Estonia in Tallinn on Saturday evening, but Gennaro Gattusso and the Azzurri are left requiring Norway to drop points if they have any hope of qualifying for the final tournament automatically. 

Italy take on Estonia in Tallinn on Saturday evening in their third match under the guidance of CT Gattuso, and their fifth match of the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. The national team beat Estonia 5-0 in Bergamo back in September, and may need another high-scoring match on Saturday to boost their 2026 World Cup hopes. 

Italy’s 3-0 defeat by Norway in their first match of the qualifying campaign back in June has proved to be costly. That match confirmed Norway’s status as the group leaders, and Erling Haaland and his teammates have kept their 100% record in tact since then. 

As things stand, Norway lead qualification Group I with a maximum 15 points from five games, while Italy sit in second on nine points from four matches. 

In order for Italy to finish at the top of the group, and therefore earn automatic qualification to the World Cup, Norway will have to drop points in one of their next two matches, and Italy will also have to win all of their remaining four, including their final qualification match against Norway in November. 

If Norway win both of their next two matches, Italy will still have a minute chance of qualifying automatically, but that requires winning all of the remaining qualifiers, including the one against Norway in November, and to overturn a goal difference of +16 over the next four matches. 

If the Azzurri finish second in the group, they will have to go through the dreaded World Cup play-off route. Third place will not be enough to qualify.