Italy heading for World Cup play-offs despite third-highest points tally in Europe

The Italy national team are heading for the World Cup play-offs despite a 2-0 win away against Moldova on Thursday evening, and, to add insult to injury, the Azzurri currently have the third-highest points tally of any European nation in the qualification groups. 

The Azzurri have one game of the World Cup qualifying group stage left to play: Against Norway in San Siro on Sunday.  

As things stand, Italy sit in second place in Group I with 18 points from seven matches. Norway are on 21 from seven, and though they have not yet mathematically qualified for the final tournament, Italy would need to beat them by nine goals on Sunday in order to overtake them into first place. 

Only the nations that finish the European qualifying groups in first place will qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup in North America. Those who finish in second will have to go through the play-offs, which is where Italy have fallen short the last two World Cup cycles.  

Barring a miracle 9-0 win over the in-form Norway, who have a 100% win record in World Cup qualifying, Italy will have to go through the play-off campaign once again. 

That is despite the fact that only Norway (21) and World Cup hopefuls England (21) have a better points tally than Italy (18) in World Cup qualifying in Europe. 

Head coach Gennaro Gattuso explained after Thursday’s win over Moldova why this qualifying system ‘doesn’t seem right’. 

“In my day, the top team in each group would go through, plus the best runners-up. We’ve got 18 points, won six games, and still we have to go into another two matches to qualify. It doesn’t seem right,” he said.