FIFA consider change in seeding rule that could help Italy at 2026 World Cup

Sunday’s reports claim that FIFA are considering a change in rules to the seeding process for the 2026 World Cup, which could come to help Italy if they end up qualifying via the play-offs. 

The Azzurri have two more matches of the World Cup qualifying group stage to go. 

As things stand, Gennaro Gattuso’s side sit second in Group I, three points behind Norway with two matches to go. As Norway have a +16 advantage over Italy on goal difference, the Azzurri are effectively left needing Norway to drop points against Estonia next week if they are to finish top of the group and qualify directly for the World Cup. 

If Italy finish second in the group, they will have to go through another play-off campaign, which has tripped the national team up on the last two World Cup cycles. 

Currently, teams who qualify for the World Cup through the play-off system are automatically placed into pot 4 when it comes to the draw for the group stage at the final tournament. 

That means that if Italy were to qualify via the play-offs, they would be among the lowest-ranked teams in the tournament, and would be drawn into a group with teams from pots 1, 2 and 3. 

Pots 1, 2 and 3, however, are decided by the current world ranking. 

According to reports from Football Meets Data and Calcio e Finanza, FIFA are currently considering a change in rule so that all four pots are determined by world rankings. 

If that were the case, Italy would almost certainly be in pot 1, rather than pot 4, which means that they would avoid having to face any of the other top seeds at the World Cup group stage assuming that they qualify.