How likely Inter, Juventus, Atalanta and Napoli are to finish in Champions League top 8

There is just one round of league phase fixtures remaining in this season’s Champions League, and for Inter, Juventus, Atalanta and Napoli, everything hangs in the balance heading into the final 90 minutes of the first round. 

As things stand after seven matches of the Champions League league phase, there are no Italian sides sitting in the top eight, which brings automatic qualification to the round of 16. Teams that finish from ninth place to 24th will have to settle for a spot in the play-offs. Those in 25th and below will be eliminated. 

Atalanta are currently the highest ranked of the Italian sides in the Champions League. They sit in 13th place on 13 points from seven matches, despite a 3-2 collapse at home against Athletic Club on Wednesday night. 

Inter sit just below La Dea in 14th place with 12 points to their name from seven matches. They were beaten 3-1 at home against league leaders Arsenal on Tuesday evening. 

Juventus complete the Italian mid-table pile-up, sitting one place below Inter in 15th place, also on 12 points but with a slightly lesser goal difference. They picked up a confidence-boosting 2-0 win at home against Jose Mourinho’s Benfica on Wednesday evening. 

Finally, there is Antonio Conte’s Napoli, who are currently in the unwanted 25th position, which is not enough to qualify for the knock-out rounds. They have eight points from seven matches and were held to a 1-1 draw by Copenhagen on Tuesday night. 

Here is a look at the probability of each side qualifying for the Champions League knock-out rounds 

*Probability according to Opta.

Chance of finishing in top eight: 13.42%

Chance of qualifying for the play-offs: 86.58%

Final fixture against: Union Saint-Gilloise (a)

Chance of finishing in top eight: 6.31%

Chance of qualifying for the play-offs: 93.69%

Final fixture against: Borussia Dortmund (a)

Chance of finishing in the top eight: 6.75%

Chance of qualifying for the play-offs: 93.25%

Final fixture against: Monaco (a)

Chance of finishing in the top eight: Mathematically impossible

Chance of qualifying for the play-offs: 50.87%

Final fixture against: Chelsea (h)